Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How South Africa stands to gain from the slump in oil prices The sharp slide in oil prices will help to lower inflation in South Africa and is likely to make a significant dent in the country’s current account deficit. But while this may ease concerns about the... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop in oil price hits Colombia’s financial markets The continued slide in the price of oil has sent Colombia’s financial markets tumbling over the past month. The peso has dropped to a five-year low against the dollar, breaching both our end-14 and... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in oil prices likely to push Angola into recession Angola will be one of the hardest hit EMs by the sharp fall in oil prices and we doubt that the authorities will be able to finance the likely current account deficit for more than a couple of years... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much will Asia benefit from falling oil prices? Most of Emerging Asia stands to benefit from lower oil prices, and in a couple of economies, Korea and Taiwan, we think the impact will be large enough to warrant an increase in our growth forecasts... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower energy prices likely to rattle policymakers In terms of the boost to corporate and household spending power, Japan should be among the big winners from the fall in global energy prices. However, for policymakers, the resulting drag on inflation... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper demand should benefit from lower oil prices The slump in oil prices has been the catalyst for falls in other commodities, including copper. We think this ignores the very different fundamentals of the two commodities. Moreover, by boosting... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much does India stand to benefit from falling oil prices? India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, but the sharp fall in global oil prices is unlikely toboost the economy by as much as might be expected. Retail prices haven’t fallen by much... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
