Commodities Update What to make of the latest slump in oil prices There is no compelling reason why oil prices cannot fall further in the near term, but the current market panic looks increasingly overdone. Other commodity prices have held up relatively well. We... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The rise in December’s whole economy PMIs suggests that, in spite of the plunge in oil prices at the end of last year, economic activity in the Gulf has held up reasonably well. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack December brings little cheer for producers Commodity prices finished 2014 on a downbeat note as a further sharp drop in the price of oil and the strength of the US dollar continued to weigh on all commodity prices. 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Demographic headwinds are picking up Firms were predicting strong gains in industrial output around the turn of the year despite some weakness in the latest figures on spending and production. But with the labour force now shrinking and... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in oil prices will radically alter global imbalances The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies. At the same time, the US deficit looks... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets suffer end-year jitters Financial markets across Latin America have come under renewed pressure in the final weeks of this year. Part of the trigger has been renewed falls in oil prices. The currencies of two of the region’s... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much will lower oil prices drag on other fuel costs? The fall in oil prices is likely to have significant implications for all commodity producers and consumers, not just those in the oil industry. We have explored the impact of falling oil prices on... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
