India Economics Update Markets buoyed by RBI’s early rate cut Having already made a good start to 2015, India’s financial markets have rallied further following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting last week. Bond yields have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How hard will the oil price slump hit mining investment? Following the collapse in crude oil prices, a sizable drop in mining investment is inevitable. Nevertheless, the shale oil boom, which has been going for less than a decade, is so new that it’s hard... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices push Emerging Asia into deflation? Sharp falls in oil prices in recent months will put downward pressure on inflation across Emerging Asia, with a number of countries likely to see inflation turn negative in early 2015. On the whole... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower oil prices unlikely to drive French retail recovery in 2015 With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation expectations to require policy response The collapse in oil prices will force the Bank of Japan to tear up its inflation forecasts at the Policy Board meeting next week. It is also likely to set back efforts to lift inflation expectations... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Ghana GDP (Q3) & Kenya Interest Rate Ghana’s GDP growth picked up in Q3, to 5.1% y/y, following a sharp slowdown in Q2. But given the declines in commodity prices, and tight monetary and fiscal policy, we think that the economy will grow... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices means deflation for most in 2015 The sharp drop in oil prices will push much of Central and South Eastern Europe into deflation over thecoming months and we have revised down our inflation forecasts accordingly. However, for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: weakest growth since 2009 to trigger rate cuts The continued slide in oil prices will weigh heavily on Colombia’s economy. We have lowered our 2015 GDP growth forecast to just 2.5% (from 3.8% previously), which is well below the 4.3% forecasted by... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Weak exports and strong non-oil imports caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen in November, in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices. All in all, the data provide early signs that Turkey is... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will lower oil prices affect housing? If production and employment are scaled back, housing markets in some oil-producing States, which have recently been among the most buoyant, could potentially suffer. But any drag that this may... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
