Global Inflation Watch Oil price effect to unwind, but deflation risks persist Headline inflation looks certain to rebound sharply in most advanced economies during the coming months as the impact of last year’s oil price slump unwinds. Looking further ahead, faster wage growth... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oil sector slowdown means Oslo office rental growth will disappoint There are now concrete signs that the slowdown in the Norwegian oil industry is beginning to feed through to the wider economy. As a result, we expect the upwards trend in Oslo office market rents to... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s weak growth in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the boost to industry from the lower oil price and euro at the start of the year may already be fizzling out. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week, registering the largest weekly decline since July last year. This was in contrast to the previous three weeks of data which had suggested the pace of the... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production boosted by surging Iraqi output Last month’s small increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market and underlines the cartel’s commitment not to cut output just to support prices in the short term. 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that growth in the early months of the year was driven by domestic demand, presumably partly reflecting the positive effects of lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oversupply and weak demand drag energy prices down The most significant event in global energy markets over the last month was the biannual OPEC meeting, where the cartel confirmed that it would maintain the current output quota of 30 million barrels... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s trio of economic tailwinds to fade Spain has benefitted from a trio of temporary tailwinds over the last year: the weaker euro, falling oil prices and a pause in fiscal austerity. So official forecasts may be wrong to assume that the... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply to cap oil prices Commodity prices have remained under pressure from continued dollar strength, although supply concerns in the past week have supported some agriculturals – notably wheat and coffee. US lumber prices... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC ensures oil supplies to remain ample It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today. Oil prices even ticked up a little on the news as late speculation of an increase in the target proved unfounded. Nonetheless... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the boom in car sales run out of gas? The recovery in car sales has lost momentum this year despite the fact that the cost of credit is about as cheap as it can get. But the healthy outlook for households’ incomes, the low level of oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf countries likely to stand firm at this week’s OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting is likely to see the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, once again shrug off calls from some of the cartel’s smaller members to cut oil production in order to shore up oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks continued to fall last week. However, the drop was the smallest since stocks began declining at the start of May 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World to benefit from long period of “just right” oil prices Crude oil prices appear to be settling in a range of $60 to $70 per barrel, which we regard as ideal (a “Goldilocks” scenario) for the global economy. Prices are high enough to ease the pressure on... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
