Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets take a bruising Equity markets across the MENA region have been hit hard over the past month against the backdrop of the general turmoil in global financial markets and a fresh drop in oil prices. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China panic spreads The negative sentiment prompted by the slide in the renminbi has been compounded by further weakness in Chinese equities and another soft reading of the country’s manufacturing PMI. What’s more... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growing disparities in Gulf fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs of diverging attitudes in the Gulf to dealing with the fiscal headache caused by low oil prices. If media reports are to be believed, the UAE looks set to... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks rose last week as a number of US refineries performed maintenance. But demand for products remained high, meaning stocks of gasoline fell. 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Jul.) The raft of Russian activity data for July, released today, showed that the economy continued to contract by 4-5% y/y at the start of Q3. And the latest drop in oil prices means that the fall in... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in drilling activity likely to be temporary We doubt that the rise in the number of active drilling rigs in the US over the last few weeks will continue for much longer, despite improvements in efficiency. A renewed decline should weigh on US... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not the Asian Financial Crisis MK2 The recent depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the dollar has left both currencies at levels not seen since 1998, but suggestions that this signals a re-run of the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Buoyant oil sector supports strong growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the end of Q2, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. However, with Iranian oil set to return to the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s planned sales tax a positive step Reports that the UAE is planning to introduce a sales tax, coming soon after some fuel prices were deregulated, add to the impression that it is taking fiscal consolidation more seriously than the... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks have now fallen for the third consecutive week as demand remains very strong and oil production shows signs of falling back a little. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
