Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s trio of economic tailwinds to fade Spain has benefitted from a trio of temporary tailwinds over the last year: the weaker euro, falling oil prices and a pause in fiscal austerity. So official forecasts may be wrong to assume that the... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply to cap oil prices Commodity prices have remained under pressure from continued dollar strength, although supply concerns in the past week have supported some agriculturals – notably wheat and coffee. US lumber prices... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC ensures oil supplies to remain ample It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today. Oil prices even ticked up a little on the news as late speculation of an increase in the target proved unfounded. Nonetheless... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the boom in car sales run out of gas? The recovery in car sales has lost momentum this year despite the fact that the cost of credit is about as cheap as it can get. But the healthy outlook for households’ incomes, the low level of oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf countries likely to stand firm at this week’s OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting is likely to see the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, once again shrug off calls from some of the cartel’s smaller members to cut oil production in order to shore up oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks continued to fall last week. However, the drop was the smallest since stocks began declining at the start of May 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World to benefit from long period of “just right” oil prices Crude oil prices appear to be settling in a range of $60 to $70 per barrel, which we regard as ideal (a “Goldilocks” scenario) for the global economy. Prices are high enough to ease the pressure on... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How helpful are the US weekly oil production data? US weekly production figures have been distorted in the last two weeks by pipeline shutdowns and statistical revisions, but they can still offer some insight into trends in US oil production. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Gabon: Low oil prices pose lasting economic challenge Growth in oil-rich Gabon is highly dependent on government spending, and low oil prices are causing a painful fiscal crunch that is dampening economic activity. Faltering economic expansion will... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Strong dollar and ample supply weigh on prices R enewed strength in the US currency undermined most commodity prices again last month, with ample supply dragging down crude oil and many agricultural too. Lingering concerns over the risk of a “hard... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What happened to the oil windfall? So far this year, households in advanced economies do not seem to have been spending their windfall from lower oil prices. However, this is partly because they stepped up their consumption late last... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength weighs on commodities (again) Commodity prices mostly fell in the past week, dragged lower by renewed strength in the US currency. Leading the falls, natural gas prices reversed their weather-related gains from earlier in the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies fall, bond yields rise Most currencies sold off against the US dollar in May. Meanwhile, the region’s bond markets have settled down in recent weeks, after being briefly caught up in the global bond market sell-off earlier... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s US data provide mixed signals, with stocks of crude oil falling and demand from refineries increasing, but production rising sharply. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Environmental concerns to drag down coal but boost gas prices Environmental issues are becoming increasingly important drivers of demand for, and supply of, all types of energy commodities. We continue to expect demand for coal to be most negatively impacted... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
