Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound devalued, likely to fall further The Egyptian pound was devalued, albeit modestly, over the past few weeks and, while the central bank has brought this process to a halt, we think a further fall in the currency is likely over the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to watch in the oil market The oil market is inundated with thousands of different statistics regarding production, consumption and trade on a daily basis. In this Energy Watch we pick five figures which we consider to be the... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil producers adjusting to new reality The collapse of oil prices since mid-2014 has exposed the huge variation in the public finances of the world’s major oil exporters. Poorly managed emerging economies such as Russia and Venezuela had... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets in Russia & Turkey recover some lost ground Currencies, equities and bonds in the region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have posted gains over the past month as oil prices have stabilised and expectations for US rate hikes have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped sharply again last week, despite an uptick in refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline fell as demand for products increased. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is here to stay Saudi Arabia’s peg to the US dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny but we think fears that the authorities will devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom’s substantial foreign exchange reserves... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf, FX reserves and budget spending: a primer Several Gulf countries have turned to their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to finance budget and current account deficits caused by last year’s slump in oil prices, but there seems to be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC “technical meeting” unlikely to change policy The most likely outcome from tomorrow’s meeting of OPEC plus some selected guests is pledges to share more information between OPEC and other oil producers. Venezuela’s and others’ calls for a cut in... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Long-term outlook for US natural gas prices still bright We remain positive on the outlook for US natural gas prices over the next few years, despite the current weakness, as the cleaner fuel should continue to take market share from coal. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s oil output rises, but supply elsewhere set to stall OPEC’s oil production rebounded a little last month, but slower growth in non-OPEC supplies and strong growth in demand should still help prices to rise over the next few years. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further evidence that sentiment is bottoming out We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What’s holding back gold? The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
