Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do the weekly changes in US oil stocks actually tell us? Changes in US weekly crude oil stocks are most influenced by variations in net crude imports, which are extremely volatile. This means it is difficult to make inferences about prices just by looking... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Capital spending likely to bear brunt of austerity in the Gulf The Gulf countries are in a strong position to cope with low oil prices, but some form of adjustment will be needed over the coming years. We expect tighter fiscal policy to do most of the work and we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of crude oil ticked up only slightly last week, whilst stocks of gasoline edged up again as refineries continued to increase production. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Risks to Middle East oil supplies remain high Ample global supply of oil means that prices are no longer incorporating much of a risk premium. However, the potential for disruption is still high and lack of spare capacity mean that prices could... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices should recover soon as market rebalances Last week’s slide in the price of crude oil has prompted us to lower our end-2015 forecasts, but we continue to expect a gradual recovery over the coming year. In particular, the latest news on global... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Demand growth to help soak up excess oil supplies Growth in demand for oil should remain strong over the next few years, despite concerns about slower growth in emerging economies. However, in the long term demand will be constrained by improvements... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped as production rose again and net imports rebounded. However, demand also recovered as refineries continued to ramp production back up. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s production falls, led by Iraq OPEC’s oil production fell in October but remains well above target. Global inventories also remained very high. The market will still take some time to return to balance, with prices set to recover... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does the Keystone XL veto mean for oil prices? The recently-vetoed Keystone XL pipeline would have provided a relatively cheap means for Canadian producers to transport oil to refineries in the US where it could be processed for sale. As such, the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose once again last week. However, despite an increase in crude production, the stock build was much smaller than the previous week’s, as refinery inputs continued to pick up and... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Back on the roller-coaster Volatility returned to the oil market in October with prices being pushed and pulled by swings in sentiment towards China, changes in the value of the dollar and the outlook for demand in the US. The... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply prospects diverge again Dollar strength and fears about demand, particularly from China, continued to overshadow commodity markets last month, but the biggest moves in prices can largely be explained by supply-side... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas market vulnerable to a correction if cold weather hits High stocks and forecasts of a mild winter have driven down US natural gas prices recently, but given slowing production growth, rising demand and the unpredictability of the weather, we think that... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, but the latest increase was less than half the previous week’s as net crude oil imports fell and inputs to refineries rebounded... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
