Commodities Update China’s carbon trading to curb coal demand further China’s new national carbon cap-and-trade scheme constitutes yet another blow to the prospects for coal demand and prices. In contrast, lower production of steel, aluminium and some petroleum products... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell and gasoline stocks increased in the US last week, despite a fall back in refinery rates and a jump in demand for oil products. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices still have further to fall We think that coal prices will probably continue to decline over the next few years as demand is diminished by competing fuels and environmental concerns, especially in China. In addition, supply... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Five key numbers for crude oil markets The oil market is inundated with thousands of different statistics regarding production, consumption and trade on a daily basis. In this Update we pick five figures which we consider to be the most... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should the Fed’s inaction mean for commodities? Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold yesterday, but the moves have been small. This makes sense, as rates are still likely to rise soon, and the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s report was full of surprises with crude oil stocks falling and gasoline stock surging. However, this was mainly driven by the return of some refineries from unexpected maintenance. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC expects to increase market share OPEC’s oil production appears to have levelled off in the last two months after surging earlier this year. But it will still take years for demand to catch up with supply and the market to rebalance. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What next for oil prices? The easing of sanctions on Iran will add to the supply of oil on world markets, but it should not be the game-changer for prices that some imagine. Instead, we think the more important factors will be... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose again last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and still-high import volumes. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices set to recover Persistently low prices mean that we have revised down our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the price of US natural gas. However, we still expect prices to rise substantially over the next few... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack China in the driving seat August proved to be another tough month for energy commodities with oil and coal prices slumping on worries about demand, prompted by the drop in the Chinese equity market. However, a further round of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
