US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Poor start gives way to some more encouraging signs The prices of key industrial commodities fell further in the first full week of 2016, led by oil, as China worries resurfaced again. The markets also concluded (rightly, in our view) that the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why did the recovery lose momentum in 2015? UK GDP growth looks like it slowed sharply in 2015. At first glance, this appears strange considering many factors – such as energy price falls – were supportive of growth. But, it looks like these... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A decade of two halves for oil prices We continue to expect the price of Brent, currently around $33 per barrel, to recover to $60 in 2017 and $70 by 2020. Nonetheless, with OPEC in disarray and China uncertainty persisting, we are... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks slipped last week despite a slight increase in production and a fall in refinery inputs. However, a sharp fall in gasoline demand and a huge rise in inventories has stolen the... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The modest rebound in export volumes in November wasn’t enough to offset the much larger decline in the previous month, suggesting that exports contracted over the fourth quarter as a whole. As things... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A mixed December closes a bleak year for commodities Broad commodity indices fell in December on the back of plummeting oil prices. But outside of energy, commodities withstood the first Fed rate hike in ten years better than many had anticipated... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi-Iran tensions unlikely to provide lasting boost to oil prices The latest flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of two main factors undermining global equities today, although we believe it has been much less important for financial markets... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks saw the largest fall since early July last week, despite a slight increase in production, as net imports dropped sharply. However, product demand also declined, with production of... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Our six key themes for commodity markets in 2016 2015 has of course been a difficult year for those, ourselves included, who have had anything positive to say about commodities. We will publish detailed predictions for 2016 early in January after a... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Cheap oil hits home The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by the fall in oil prices well so far, but 2016 is likely to be the year in which low energy prices begin to weigh on growth. We don’t expect... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect for coal and gas prices in 2016 In this second Energy Watch of the month, we take a brief look back at the coal and US natural gas markets in 2015. We then set out our forecasts for prices for 2016 and out to 2020. The previous... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
