Energy Watch When will the oil market rebalance? A potential agreement between some OPEC members and Russia to freeze oil production at January’s levels, along with fears about slowing economic growth in China and the US, have intensified debate... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices triggers fiscal responses The past month has seen governments in several countries in Latin America announce measures to repair some of the fiscal damage caused by lower commodity prices. The most impressive package came from... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks hit another high last week, but gasoline stocks fell, both partly reflecting reduced refinery activity. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower oil prices finally boost global growth? Last year, the slump in oil prices turned out to be less of a bonanza for the world economy than most had anticipated. This year we expect oil prices to be more stable, but still relatively low. In... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices may finally be finding a floor Oil prices have ebbed and flowed in the past week on hopes that at least some OPEC members will be able to agree a deal with Russia to freeze output. Admittedly, the recent talks have left many... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks returned to the familiar pattern of strong growth last week after taking a brief respite the previous week. On a more positive note for prices, inputs to refineries rose and oil... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Hopes of an output deal prop up oil prices The headlines over the last month have focused on the possibility of a deal between Russia and OPEC on oil supply, which culminated in yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to freeze output... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar supports commodity prices It has been a quiet few weeks for news from China, as disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday has made it difficult to determine exactly how the economy has fared so far this year... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How big a deal is the agreement to freeze oil output? The oil markets have given a lukewarm response to the tentative deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to hold their output at its January levels. We are wary too, as it was unlikely that either country... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Resilience of industrial commodity prices reassuring Given the negativity in global equity markets, the relative stability of industrial commodity prices (especially metals) over the last few weeks has been reassuring. Even Brent crude, while slipping... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Resilient production could keep oil prices lower for longer Even though we continue to think that oil prices will finish the year much higher than they started it, there is a growing risk that US shale producers will continue to defy forecasts of their demise. 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
