Energy Update Paris agreement another nail in coal’s coffin The agreement in Paris on climate change over the weekend adds further pressure on countries to reduce their carbon emissions. Even though there is likely to be little immediate impact on commodities... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Near-term risks abound, but oil should recover in 2016 Brent crude's renewed slide below $40 per barrel was the damning verdict on OPEC's failure to agree on a number even for what is largely a notional output target. In principle, prices could keep... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect for oil prices in 2016 In this Energy Watch we briefly review oil prices in 2015, a year which many investors will probably be glad to see the back of. We then set out our central forecasts for 2016 and out to 2020. However... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production driven higher by Iraq OPEC production rebounded in November, led by Iraq, which will only add to the glut of oil in the market. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd next year and non-OPEC supply should fall... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks registered their first fall in almost three months last week, despite another jump in net imports and a decrease in refinery runs. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices should recover in 2016, regardless of OPEC Brent’s (short-lived) dip today below $40 per barrel is a further damning verdict on OPEC’s bungled communications after its meeting last Friday. However, it was never likely that the group would... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to recover next year, whatever OPEC targets We, and we suspect many others, are still trying to work out exactly what OPEC decided at Friday’s meeting. Usually reliable sources have reported that OPEC has agreed to raise its output target from... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack High stocks put energy commodity prices under pressure The prices of most energy commodities fell in November as negative sentiment towards commodities in general, high stocks, a warm start to winter in the US and further announcements by China about... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks grew again last week despite strong growth in refinery inputs, as a surge in imports overwhelmed higher demand. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack No reprieve yet for commodities prices The prices of commodities continued to fall in November, pummelled by the strength of the US dollar and persistent concerns about a hard landing in China. While supply-side developments explain the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
