Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack No New Year cheer for energy commodities Negative sentiment towards commodities in general, high stocks, a warm start to winter in the US and renewed fears about the Chinese economy have all contributed to the downward pressure on the prices... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to ride out financial market storms Global markets have had a rocky start to the year with equities, emerging market currencies and oil bearing the brunt of the declines. The stock market falls are unlikely to have much of an impact on... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited boost to corporate profits from cheaper oil Corporate profits have not risen much in response to lower prices of energy and other raw materials, as the gains have been highly concentrated in a few sectors. Looking ahead, the recent appreciation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week, driven by a drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks. However, demand for oil... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities ripe for a rebound In the light of the recent turmoil we are revising our forecasts for Japan’s currency and equity prices. Nonetheless, we continue to expect a combination of better news from China, a partial recovery... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falling oil and equity prices undermine European property? Fears about China, as well as plunging oil and equity prices, have dominated the start of 2016. However, we believe that concerns over China are overstated and that oil prices will begin to recover... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Would the Gulf benefit from currency devaluation? The latest drop in oil prices has intensified speculation that the Gulf economies might abandon their dollar pegs but there remain good reasons to think that this would achieve little in terms of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could Saudi Arabia spring a surprise output cut? Saudi Arabia has been willing and able to weather an extended period of low oil prices in order to squeeze out higher cost producers in the US, while perhaps also gaining some satisfaction from the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught in global markets' turmoil A downturn in China’s equity market since the start of the year and concerns about the country’s economic growth prospects reignited turmoil in global markets and dragged commodity indices lower. In... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could Saudi Arabia spring a surprise output cut? Saudi Arabia has been willing and able to weather an extended period of low oil prices in order to squeeze out higher cost producers in the US, while perhaps also gaining some satisfaction from the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of Iran sanctions not a game-changer for oil Confirmation that Western sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme are to be lifted might be expected to add to the downward pressure on oil prices, but there are three main reasons why the impact... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
