Energy Update Doha disappoints, but oil market likely to rebalance anyway The failure of Sunday’s meeting in Doha to freeze oil production has further undermined the credibility of OPEC. But it has very little impact on our outlook for supply over the rest of the year. We... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran agree to freeze oil production scuppered any chance of a deal in Doha at the weekend and suggests that the Kingdom is in no mood to abandon its oil market strategy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Even after allowing for the sharp decline in the value of petroleum sales, the 3.3% m/m drop in manufacturing sales in February was twice as large as expected, with the drop in sales volumes hinting... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Deal or no deal in Doha? We think that the risk of the oil market being disappointed by any deal to freeze production in Doha on Sunday is high, given that oil prices have rallied by over 10% in the last week alone. Any deal... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC trims its demand outlook on growth fears OPEC production was stable last month. However, the group has cut its forecast for demand growth this year on fears of slower economic growth in China and Latin America. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, rounding off a strong quarter for import demand. However, local stocks have been building, suggesting that we will need to see a pick-up in activity if... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Mar.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show a further tightening of the market in March, despite a larger-than-expected rise in production. 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting Commodity prices had a mixed week, despite support from further softness in the US dollar. In particular, key industrial metals dropped back, consistent with our view that the earlier surge was... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to continue growing strongly Fuel consumption by US motorists is set to grow strongly again this year, despite a shaky start, as robust employment growth encourages more people to drive and demand for less fuel-efficient trucks... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are EM equities just a play on oil? An increase in the price of oil in the past day or two has helped at least some equity markets in the emerging world to snap their poor start to the second quarter. We doubt that oil prices will climb... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories fell last week, but gasoline stocks rose, both partly reflecting increased refinery activity. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) Data released today confirmed that Saudi GDP growth held steady at 3.6% y/y in the final quarter of last year but we think the economy will slow sharply this year and even further in 2017. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output? Comments from a leading Saudi Arabian official on Friday have led markets to reassess the prospect of a deal being done in Doha later this month to freeze OPEC and Russian oil production. In our view... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
