Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly COP28 and OPEC+, Saudi secures 2030 World Expo While COP28 is getting underway in Dubai, attention may be drawn instead to events in Vienna today, where OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to reduce its oil production by a further 1mn bpd. This would... 30th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ won’t let prices slide Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to... 23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Another sour week for oil, precious metals to shine Gold and silver prices soared this week on renewed optimism that the Fed had hiked to the peak of its monetary policy mountain. We expect prices to rise further when interest rates begin to be cut... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Biden, Xi and energy market scenarios The US and China once again backed the G20 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity this week (from 2020), a goal which would help to keep the path to net zero emissions by 2050 on track... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA, EU-China influence, MTBPS Even as African officials push for an extension of a key US-Africa trade agreement, it was announced this week that Uganda will lose duty-free access to the US from next year in response to the... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the... 3rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year. The Israel-Hamas... 3rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive... 2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tusk tasked with decarbonising Poland; IEA optimism Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition are making the right noises about phasing out coal usage in Poland, although it remains to be seen how his plans will survive contact with politically powerful... 31st October 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to another energy shock? An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly War and weather to drive prices in short term The conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to drive commodity prices this week. Oil prices fell back while gold prices defied the stronger dollar and held steady. Events in the Middle East will... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG poses risks for the EU but new supply on its way EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
