Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Oct. 16) The negative impact on prices of a large rise in crude inventories was more than offset by sharp falls in stocks of gasoline and distillates as refinery utilisation dipped again. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fallout from higher oil prices (mostly) good news The recovery in oil prices is a mixed blessing for global growth. We estimate that the contribution of energy costs to annual CPI inflation in the advanced economies will flip from an average of minus... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak The Bank of Canada’s Autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that the drag from the collapse in crude oil prices last year is finally fading. However, there are still few signs that the recovery will be... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices shrug off US dollar appreciation Energy prices surged this week, despite the strength of the US dollar, as the physical markets appeared to be moving closer to balance from a position of oversupply. In most other commodity markets... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (5th Oct. 16) Crude oil stocks posted yet another surprise fall last week, despite a further reduction in demand from refineries. However, gasoline stocks rose slightly. 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Hopes of market rebalancing boost energy commodities OPEC’s announcement that it would reintroduce output quotas at its next meeting in November and the subsequent jump in oil prices stole the headlines in September. But coal prices have surged even... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A positive month for commodities Encouraging Chinese economic data and the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates on hold boosted the prices of most commodities last month. That said, gold traded in a narrow range, perhaps starting... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC’s surprise deal lacks substance The price of oil surged this week in response to the announcement that OPEC members had reached a deal to curb output. However, we are sceptical that this new deal will lead to lower oil supply, not... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 16) The bigger than expected 0.5% m/m gain in July GDP means that the Bank of Canada’s forecast of a 3.5% annualised increase for the third quarter as a whole now looks well within reach. However, it is... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal Last night’s OPEC deal to cut output is short on details, although our sense is that it’s unlikely to be a game-changer for Saudi Arabia, even if it shoulders most of the burden of the fall in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC deal not a game-changer for oil markets Last night’s surprise OPEC announcement that it will limit output caused prices to surge. But the lack of details, OPEC’s poor record of compliance with its own quotas and the potential for shale... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. 16) US crude oil stocks fell last week as net imports and domestic production fell. However, gasoline stocks rose – despite lower refinery output – as demand weakened. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
