Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants... 25th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Europe natural gas price to stay lower than Asia LNG Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial metals prices crumple, gold hits a new peak The weaker-than-expected economic activity data for China in Q2 weighed on industrial metals prices early in the week. The mood was further darkened by the lack of any specific stimulus announcements... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 1721916000 Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.
Commodities Weekly Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil activity cooling Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Taking stock of hurricane season energy risks While the fossil fuel sector looks set to get off relatively lightly from Hurricane Beryl, the prospect of a busier than usual Atlantic hurricane season this year raises the chances of greater... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (July 2024) China overcapacity fears coming to industrial metals China’s dominant role in the world of commodities is evolving subtly. This is particularly the case for gold, where increased demand by the PBoC... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not... 1st July 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Economics, not the White House, the key to US energy The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Donald Trump has made it clear he would provide greater support for the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
