US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
China Economic Outlook Further slowdown in 2020 with coronavirus a new threat Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus... 23rd January 2020 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to drive pick-up in growth Regional GDP growth is likely to gather pace this year as loose monetary and fiscal policy bolsters recoveries in Russia and Turkey and helps to cushion the slowdown in Central Europe. Interest rates... 23rd January 2020 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Focus What to expect as the UK negotiates its future relationships As the negotiations over the UK’s new relationship with the EU will be arduous and long, business investment probably won’t rise much this year as firms will worry about the risk of there being... 23rd January 2020 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: reform package key test for Jokowi The legislation that President Joko Widodo has presented to parliament, which includes proposals to cut red tape, lower taxes and free up the labour market, would form the basis of any foreign... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires We doubt that the bushfire crisis will prompt a major shift in the Australian government’s attitude towards the mining industry. But the sector’s importance is set to decline either way as mining... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2020 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic... 20th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Most countries set for gradual recovery, China to slow Most countries in Emerging Asia should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year helped by continued policy support. Several have announced expansionary budgets or fiscal stimulus packages, while... 16th January 2020 · 49 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily BoE policy likely to push sterling and Gilt yields higher this year While the negotiations between the UK and the EU on their future relationship will probably continue to influence UK financial markets this year, we think that monetary policy will be another... 13th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Weekly First evidence of a “Boris bounce” There is some early evidence that a “Boris bounce” after the election victory might be in progress, but the size and duration of any upswing will depend on how well the next stage of the Brexit... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls We expect most of the 2020s to be characterised by slow growth and very low inflation as persistently weak productivity growth leaves the developed world looking distinctly Japanese. But technological... 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
