US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Change of Chancellor increases upsides for economy We had already been expecting fiscal policy to provide a decent boost to economic growth over the next couple of years, but the changing of the Chancellor this week means that boost could turn out to... 14th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP policy shift unlikely despite Delhi election loss The chastening defeat for the BJP in the Delhi Union Territory election has been viewed by some as a backlash against its recent policies including the passage of controversial Citizenship Amendment... 14th February 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rishi Sunak replaces Sajid Javid as Chancellor This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the announcement that Sajid Javid was being replaced as Chancellor by Rishi Sunak at 12pm on 13th February 2020. The... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s election throws up longer-term risks Ireland’ general election result does not change our view on the near-term outlook for the economy, which should maintain a decent pace this year and next. But it does raise questions about the longer... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic nomination race still wide open When the results of the Iowa caucuses were eventually released they only increased the uncertainty over who will become the Democratic nominee. With his approval rating hitting its highest level in... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Sanders’ surge could be bad news for US equities Bernie Sanders is still a long way from the White House, but several of his policies look very negative for US equities. If his support continues to climb that could start to weigh on the US stock... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Taking stock of Sanders’ surge The surge in Bernie Sanders’ perceived chances of the winning the Democratic nomination could yet weigh on the stock market if he continues to build momentum in upcoming primaries. Even so, our... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to disappoint even if oil price recovers Fears about the coronavirus outbreak have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for the Gulf countries. Lower oil prices and a possible deepening of oil production cuts will act as a... 5th February 2020 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the fiscal stimulus deliver much bang for its buck? We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus... 3rd February 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit begins Even when the UK leaves the EU tonight, the shape of its future relationship with the EU is still very uncertain. We suspect it will eventually have a more distant “Canada, plus, plus” type... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
Monetary policy is losing its power over households The downward trend in interest rates that began in the 1980s contributed to large falls in household saving rates in most advanced economies. But with larger proportions of people now nearing... 30th January 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
Metals Focus What ‘Japanification’ means for steel Weakness in economic growth and unfavourable demographics mean that we expect most of the developed world, and China, to experience ‘Japanification’. One of the commodities most affected would be... 24th January 2020 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
