Capital Daily US election could weigh on equities in the second half of 2020 While we have been sceptical of the argument that shifts in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the upcoming US elections have been a major driver of US equity markets this year, that... 22nd June 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update BJP building its political strength Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that the BJP has the... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Biden edges ahead in election race A lot could still change over the next five months but, as things stand, Joe Biden appears to be the favourite to win November’s presidential election. Biden’s policies are more moderate than some of... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
India Economics Focus Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means... 6th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Insolvencies (Q1) The drop in both the number of corporate and individual insolvencies in Q1 is unlikely to be maintained over the next few months as the collapse in revenues and employment caused by the coronavirus... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Extension of state of emergency to weigh on spending The government will extend the state of emergency at least until the end of May. We continue to expect GDP to fall by 12% q/q in Q2. Meanwhile, the government has started a review of Japan’s outdated... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Divided politicians to leave ball in ECB’s court Proposals for a major, joint fiscal initiative are under discussion again ahead of tomorrow’s EU leaders’ meeting. But the gulf between those in favour and against looks too large to bridge. As a... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
