Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: what does election mean for the economy? The landslide victory by Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP) will allow incumbent President Rajapaksa to consolidate power. This is likely to lead to an increase in corruption and nepotism and will also... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to drive a solid recovery The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have... 22nd July 2020 · 28 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook A multi-speed recovery, with China leading the way Overview Economic activity is rebounding across the region, but the speed of the recovery varies significantly by country. Daily life in China, Vietnam and Taiwan has already returned largely to... 15th July 2020 · 35 mins read
UK Economics Update OBR’s fiscal warnings can be ignored…for now The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) today sent a clear message to the government that regardless of the speed of the recovery, the government debt to GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path. Even... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chance of Democratic landslide increases risk to US equities The rising odds of a Democratic landslide in November’s US election could become an increasingly important factor for US equities in the second half of the year. 1st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update End of Abenomics in name only when PM steps down The chances of PM Abe serving a fourth term as LDP leader have fallen considerably in recent months. Instead, speculation has turned to whether Mr Abe will be able to hang on as Prime Minister for the... 1st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets We estimate that the revenues of firms in most sectors were still too low in mid-June to generate profits. If those conditions persisted, nearly one-third of firms would run out of cash by the end of... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
