Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Light at the end of the tunnel High frequency data suggest that the Delta wave resulted in a renewed weakening in consumer spending in recent weeks. And given that the government this week extended the state of emergency in the... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Evergrande circling the plughole Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Update Conservative victory won’t be a game-changer The costed election platform released by the Conservatives this week suggests that, if they were to form a government after this month’s election, they would run a similar fiscal policy to the Liberal... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s core measures point to sustained inflation ahead In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted alternative measures of inflation, including the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE and inflation ex-durable goods, which he claimed were... 9th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to press ahead with tightening Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should... 9th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: debt risks loom larger with escalating conflict Ethiopia’s escalating internal conflict has reignited concerns about the country’s public debt position. While debt dynamics may not look that worrisome on the surface, the political situation... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ishiba could clear path for Kono to become PM Kono Taro is emerging as the favourite to succeed Mr Suga as PM. While Kishida and Takaichi are viewed as safer hands by LDP party elders, the outspoken Kono’s popularity with the public gives him the... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite RBA tapering, we expect a weaker Australian dollar Despite today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to taper its asset purchases, we think the Australian dollar will weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. 7th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Government leaves itself with some fiscal ammo to utilise later The net effect of today’s announcements on social care reform may provide a very small boost to GDP. But perhaps more important is that by funding more spending on social care by raising taxes, the... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
