Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022 The slow progress in rolling out vaccines in New Zealand means that its border may only be reopened by the end of this year. With net migration boosting population growth by around 1%-pt per annum... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Focus Another decade of negative real interest rates The equilibrium level of real interest rates in the global economy may not remain quite as low as of late, but we expect any rise to be gradual and small. With policymakers at the same time taking a... 24th February 2021 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices We recently launched our new service, The Long Run, which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. One of the key points that comes out from the forecasts is that Emerging Asia is set... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Draghi reform the euro-zone? Mario Draghi’s reputation and large majority put him in a strong position to promote euro-zone reform and he may have some successes in areas such as banking union and fiscal rules. But he will be... 16th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pandemic has improved Italy’s debt dynamics The COVID-19 crisis has led to something of a paradox: Italy’s public debt ratio has risen, but the probability of default has fallen. That’s largely because BTP yields are likely to stay far lower... 11th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about a Draghi-led government The markets have reacted well to the news that Mario Draghi has been tasked with forming a new government. It is hard to think of a better candidate to lead Italy through a crisis, but we doubt that... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2021 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New outbreaks key risk to above-consensus forecasts Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are... 18th January 2021 · 36 mins read
