Japan Economics Update

More dynamism not lifting productivity yet

While there are tentative signs that Japan’s economy is becoming more dynamic, this has yet to produce significant improvements in aggregate productivity. We still think that a more meaningful pick-up...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the euro will fare well against the pound

In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

What next for France?

The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very...

8th July 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German budget deal only moderately encouraging

The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM

The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to...

8th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB

Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next...

8th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Second round results of France’s parliamentary election

The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while...

7th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US?

With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10

As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context

Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates

The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read