Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update What next after Trudeau steps down? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader sets off a contest for who will lead the party into the election due by October, but which could happen much... 6th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on the Alternative für Deutschland The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has attracted attention recently because of its strong opinion poll ratings and endorsement by Elon Musk. The party has no plausible route to power after February... 3rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis deepens Korea’s political crisis deepened today after parliament voted to impeach acting president, Han Duck-soo, just two weeks after President Yoon Suk Yeol was himself impeached following his shock... 27th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow” Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s market meltdown Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications 1734534000 A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fall Economic Statement a secondary event The Fall Economic Statement (FES) showed a much larger budget deficit for the previous fiscal year than previously estimated, but that was largely due to one-off charges related to indigenous... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target? The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
