Asia Economics Weekly Moon eclipsed, AstraZeneca uncertainty Wednesday’s landslide defeat for President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) in key mayoral elections in Korea suggest that it faces an uphill battle to retain the presidency in next year’s vote. Defeat... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly UK variant taking hold in Osaka, July snap election? Signs the recent surge in infections in the Osaka area is being driven by more infectious strains raises the risk of more draconian restrictions being needed to break the fourth wave of coronavirus... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: infections, vaccines and the recovery While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Surge in infections a risk to the recovery The economic recovery has progressed well over recent months and as things currently stand growth is on course to be stronger than the consensus expects this year. But the recent surge in virus cases... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Update Easing in Denmark is the exception, not the rule The comparative success that the Danish government has had in handling COVID has allowed it to start to re-open the economy, despite the painfully slow progress on the vaccine front. Most economies in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Vietnam’s new leadership The unveiling of Vietnam’s new leadership team earlier this week contained no new surprises, and we are not expecting any significant changes in policy direction. The economy is well-placed to meet... 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Government troubles raise stakes in German election The broad consensus among Germany’s major parties means that September’s election will not lead to big macroeconomic policy changes. But with the Greens and/or SDP set to gain influence, fiscal policy... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in virus cases a growing threat to recovery The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a six-month high yesterday has predominantly been limited to one state. But there are signs that the virus is spreading rapidly to other parts of the country and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus developments pushing back the recovery The renewed surge in virus cases and tightening of restrictions across Central Europe will deal a heavy blow to the recovery in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, slow vaccine rollouts mean that... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
