Asia Economics Update Taiwan: outbreak to weigh on consumption The first major outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan has triggered the first significant restrictions on activity. Consumer spending will suffer, but the rest of the economy should still perform strongly. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s census: the good, the bad and the ugly After a month-long delay, the key results from China’s once-a-decade census were published today. They weren’t as bad earlier media reports had suggested – the population continued to rise at much the... 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus outbreaks While the high numbers of COVID-19 cases will drag on the recovery in many in EMs in Q2, there are – at least outside India – encouraging signs that the worst of the current waves may be over in most... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lessons from the UAE’s vaccine rollout The UAE has been one of the global leaders in its vaccine rollout thanks to the aggressive procurement of vaccines, numerous vaccination centres and wide eligibility. Containment measures have been... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) India’s PMI readings for April suggest that economic activity has held up fairly well despite the latest set of containment measures. But with virus cases still extremely high, tighter and wider... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update State election results fail to move the needle Results of the state elections that have been taking place over the past couple of months are unlikely to have undermined the BJP’s willingness to implement difficult economic reforms, particularly... 3rd May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Population pressures, supply constraints biting There is mounting evidence that supply constraints are feeding price pressures across manufacturing in China. Producer price inflation is about to jump to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the statistics... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from MbS’s interview Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare TV interview this week and hinted that some of the government’s recent fiscal tightening may be unwound, which would boost the economic... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s population may have peaked China’s census has revealed the first population decline since the People’s Republic was founded, according to the FT. If this is confirmed and the beginning of a trend, China’s challenge in... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near the front of the EM pack Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for... 26th April 2021 · 29 mins read
