Latin America Economics Update Peru: Lessons from Humala’s presidency Peru’s president-in-waiting Pedro Castillo seems more moderate than many initially feared, which bears a striking resemblance to former leader Ollanta Humala. The latter’s tenure suggests that... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in April was smaller than Stats Can initially suggested and implies that, despite the third coronavirus wave, the economy held up relatively well. We now expect second... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Virus disruption to continue The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and... 30th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish The further tightening of virus containment measures in South Africa for at least the next two weeks is unlikely to inflict severe damage on the economy. But it reinforces our view that the Reserve... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s NT outlook not as dire as many think Argentina’s GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% q/q in Q1 and, while the recent third virus wave has dragged down activity in Q2, we are sticking with our above-consensus forecast of 8%... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
