Africa Economics Weekly SA: new cabinet, old problems; SDRs no bonanza This week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa has hit the rand and, while the new finance minister appears to be an investor-friendly choice, it will be a tall order to stabilise the public debt... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
US Economics How could Biden reshape the Fed? Whether President Joe Biden chooses to reappoint Jerome Powell or to nominate Lael Brainard to be the next Fed Chair, it is unlikely in itself to have much impact on the near-term outlook for monetary... 5th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Bonds & Equities We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Low vaccine coverage makes variants the key risk Low vaccine coverage means that the threat to economic recoveries from the highly-contagious Delta variant is much larger in the emerging world than in developed economies. And EMs will take longer to... 29th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Pandemic rebound peaks but recovery story still intact The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The... 28th July 2021 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Tunisia: political turmoil further raises debt risks The decision by Tunisia’s President Kais Saied to sack the prime minister and freeze parliament has raised serious concerns about the future of democracy in the country and couldn’t come at a worse... 26th July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally While the US dollar has fallen back a little against most currencies in the second half of the week as the sharp sell-off in risky assets and currencies on Monday was reversed, it looks set to end the... 23rd July 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta variant and fiscal limbo add to uncertainty Although the $600bn bipartisan infrastructure deal fell at the first hurdle in the Senate this week, centrist Republican Senators indicated that they would be willing to provide the support to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
