Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Zambia: on the rocky road to restore macro stability The victory of Hakainde Hichilema in last week’s Zambian elections will probably nudge the country in the direction of more prudent macroeconomic policies and reforms under an IMF deal. These may bear... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of... 13th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the Delta variant has had limited impact on economic activity outside parts of Asia. The risk of stricter containment measures will continue to be greater in much of... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of living with COVID Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Outlook darkens The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
