Africa Economics Weekly Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants... 25th July 2024 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal rules: there to be broken? A growing number of EMs have adopted fiscal rules to improve investor confidence in the management of their public finances. But the recent deterioration in fiscal health in some EMs has led to the... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris... 21st July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services-led slowdown, Third Plenum signals The detailed breakdown of Q2’s weaker-than-expected GDP figures point to a broad-based slowdown in almost all parts of the service sector, leaving growth increasingly dependent on industry. The Third... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 1721916000 Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.
Event China Drop-In: Does the Third Plenum signal a big reform push is coming? 1721635200 The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum ended with a much-anticipated pledge to continue “comprehensively deepening reform”.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s election: time for change? The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end? We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve. 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Trump & financial markets Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key... 15th July 2024 · 4 mins read
