Canada Economics Weekly

Trudeau and Trump share their truths

The power vacuum created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation comes at a bad time, with President-elect Donald Trump ratcheting up his threats against Canada, raising the risk that the next...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around

The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not...

10th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting?

Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials...

10th January 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus

While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa

Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling...

10th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Assessing the risks to energy prices

While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president

Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets...

9th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Trump’s word on climate is not the be-all and end-all

Whilst Donald Trump is threatening to slam the brakes on the green transition in the US, state-level officials have the tools to continue making progress on the climate front. This Update uses our...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term

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As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin

Canada Economics Focus

Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State

Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import...

9th January 2025 · 19 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop?

The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs...

8th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

The improvement in activity growth in China has been one reason for more bullish sentiment in the oil market around the turn of the year. However, the stimulus-fuelled cyclical upturn in China’s...

8th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Update

What do we mean by geopolitical blocs?

The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to...

7th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its...

7th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

What next after Trudeau steps down?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader sets off a contest for who will lead the party into the election due by October, but which could happen much...

6th January 2025 · 4 mins read