Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch D-day looms for Norges Bank as the SNB watches on While the Swiss National Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold yet again next Thursday, the Norges Bank will finally pull the trigger on its tightening cycle. Given the backdrop of global risks... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch PM frontrunner Kono may favour sharper taper Dug in for an extended hold, the Bank of Japan won’t alter its major policy settings at its September meeting. Further ahead though, PM Suga’s successor – to be elected in two weeks’ time – may look... 16th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still preparing ground for QE taper We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September... 15th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Stage set for hawkish tweaks to Riksbank’s exit strategy The momentum in the Swedish economy, and jump in inflation in August, gives the Riksbank plenty to ponder at next week’s policy meeting. While repo rate hikes are not on policymakers’ agenda, the... 14th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Delta not the main factor weighing on growth With authorities having shown no appetite to reimpose restrictions on activity and new virus cases now levelling off, the Delta variant is still unlikely to have as big an impact on the economy as... 13th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Light at the end of the tunnel High frequency data suggest that the Delta wave resulted in a renewed weakening in consumer spending in recent weeks. And given that the government this week extended the state of emergency in the... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Evergrande circling the plughole Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Update Conservative victory won’t be a game-changer The costed election platform released by the Conservatives this week suggests that, if they were to form a government after this month’s election, they would run a similar fiscal policy to the Liberal... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
