Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech the exception as rate hikes slow, Russia sanctions Central banks have started to slow tightening cycles in recent weeks and, in Turkey’s case, begin cutting interest rates. As inflation pressures ease, this pattern is likely to continue. But the Czech... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Election solidifies larger role for government The federal election confirms that the government will continue to play a larger role in the economy than before the pandemic, which is one reason to think that inflation will be higher in the coming... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly States of emergency may end before LDP election Reports this week that PM Suga is keen to end emergency declarations before leaving office on Wednesday are good for our view that output will rebound strongly to above pre-virus levels in Q4... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil The continued rise in global gas prices will provide a substantial boost to Qatar's export revenues and provide scope for policymakers to loosen the purse strings to support the economic recovery... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers about Germany’s election The federal election in Germany on Sunday will result in a new chancellor for the first time since 2005 and opinion polls suggest that the result will be extremely close with potentially months of... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Modest policy loosening to follow election There has been almost no change in the distribution of seats in Parliament following the election, but it seems likely that the minority Liberal government will press on with a modest loosening of... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update “QT” creeping up the agenda in Sweden The Riksbank stuck firmly to “Plan A” this morning by maintaining the status quo for the repo rate and its asset purchase programme. However, the slight tweak to the Bank’s language on the outlook for... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does deglobalisation mean for Japan? There are good reasons to think that the natural stalling in globalisation underway won’t do much damage to Japanese manufacturers. And while an abrupt severing of supply chains between China on the... 21st September 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Mapping decoupling China and countries that align more closely with it than with the US together account for around half of the world’s population. But the China bloc is far smaller economically than the US bloc and far... 17th September 2021 · 26 mins read
