US Economics Update Debt ceiling deal may only delay the inevitable The entrenched positions of both sides suggest the deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December may only delay rather than avert a crisis. And in that scenario, we doubt that the Treasury minting a... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly PacMan joins the race, baht set for further falls The next presidential election in the Philippines is not until May, but the contest is already generating plenty of headlines with former boxing world champion Manny Pacquiao (PacMan to his fans) this... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM The price of oil hit its highest level in nearly three years this week and, combined with rising oil output, will help support an improvement in budget and current account positions in the Gulf. This... 30th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update What does Kishida’s victory mean for Japan? Incoming PM Kishida has provided mixed signals on fiscal policy, pledging a large near-term stimulus while retaining ambitious medium-term consolidation plans. Given that he blamed deregulation for... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The German election & the outlook for E-Z bonds & the euro We think that regardless of which coalition ends up governing Germany in the aftermath of the general election, there won’t be a big shift in fiscal policy or Germany’s attitude towards European... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update No major policy shift likely following German election With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Evergrande fallout on Lat Am, Peronist infighting Fears over Chinese property giant Evergrande rocked global markets earlier this week and Latin American economies, particularly Chile and Peru, are among the most exposed in the world to problems in... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
