Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico

We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions...

23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Focus

What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?

The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will...

23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

What a Coalition victory would mean for Australia

We suspect that a Coalition government would run slightly tighter fiscal policy than Labor, which in turn may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen monetary policy a bit more aggressively...

22nd January 2025 · 18 mins read

US Economics Update

What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans?

The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could...

21st January 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: The disunited provinces of Canada

The federal government is planning to fight US tariffs with tariffs, but reports this week suggest that those would cover a far smaller value of goods than the US is likely to hit. The government has...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire

As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The...

17th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum

The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel after the war: what comes next?

The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can...

16th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: GNU has tough task to realise economic potential

Six months since its formation, South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has fostered a lot of goodwill in the market. Loadshedding is seemingly a thing of the past, logistics constraints...

16th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future

The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the...

16th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire

The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the...

15th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the...

15th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

A guide to upcoming elections across CEE

A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future...

15th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: better placed to face Trump now?

Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on...

14th January 2025 · 18 mins read