Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Omicron cases, BCRA hikes, Banxico minutes New virus cases have jumped almost five-fold in Latin America over the past two weeks as the contagious Omicron variant is taking hold, but there are reasons to think that the economic fallout will be... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect the RBA to end QE in February Surging cases of the Omicron variant are putting Australia’s healthcare system under pressure and will weigh on consumption in Q1. But we think fresh lockdowns will be avoided. What’s more, growing... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics A catch-up on COVID Given the huge surge in cases throughout December, the COVID-19 situation is once again set to be the biggest determinant of the performance of the economy over the first few months of 2022. We aren’t... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
