Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for the recovery? Politics takes centre stage Despite a surge in virus cases at the start of the year, most countries recorded decent growth in the first quarter. We expect recoveries to continue over the coming months on the back of an easing of... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update No good options Officials are struggling to balance a raft of conflicting goals spanning everything from GDP growth, zero-COVID, exchange rate stability, deleveraging and regulation. We don’t expect much compromise... 12th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s budget, UAE welfare, Lebanon election Egypt’s draft budget reiterated the government’s commitment to keeping fiscal policy tight but, with debt servicing costs rising sharply and the currency set to weaken, there are increasing concerns... 12th May 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: What to expect from Bongbong Marcos Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is eager to resume the “Build Build Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor and pursue closer ties with China. Extra spending on infrastructure would be... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Which COVID-behavioural changes are permanent? We argued two years ago that the pandemic would accelerate changes that were already underway rather than trigger behavioural changes out of the blue. Now that most restrictions have been removed in... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election Despite the sharp jump in inflation in the Philippines last month, the central bank looks set to raise interest rates only gradually. Meanwhile, the key event of the coming week is the presidential... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro vs. Gutiérrez This week Colombia's Liberal Party offered its backing to market-friendly Federico Gutiérrez – who currently trails left-wing Gustavo Petro in the polls – ahead of next month's presidential election... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
