China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA probably won’t hike before the May election Trimmed mean inflation will probably climb above the upper end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band in Q1, which would add to the case for the RBA to start hiking rates in May. However, the RBA hasn’t... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Hit to output from staff absences could be hard Skyrocketing infections and a 10-day isolation requirement for close contacts of positive cases have resulted in a wave of staff absences in Japan. Domestic carmakers already struggling with chip... 24th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile? President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Economy less favourable for whoever’s in Number 10 Although it is hard to predict whether by the end of next week Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister will be solidifying or crumbling, we know that whoever is in Number 10 over the next year will... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
