Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Aramco share sale, Tunisian politics Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that the Kingdom’s medium-term oil policy will include raising output to capture market share and not leave large... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market Both we and the market are now discounting 100bp of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. And given the sequencing set out by Christine Lagarde, it seems likely that net asset purchases will end in Q3... 8th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy back in recovery mode next month Omicron disruption to supply chains was already holding back industrial production in some sectors in December. And with domestic cases surging since then the recovery will have gone into reverse at... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly E-rupee will have to battle consumer indifference One of the more eye-catching elements of the Union Budget was the pledge that the RBI would introduce a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the upcoming fiscal year. That would make the Reserve... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update The UP election and what it means for reforms The upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) – India’s most populous state and one of its most politically important – is already having an impact on economic policy as contentious reforms have been... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal rebound to continue after election The Socialist Party’s victory in yesterday’s election means there will be no substantial change in economic policy, but the government should be more stable. In any case, Portugal’s economy is set to... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Best possible outcome for Italy By re-electing Sergio Mattarella as president and ensuring that Mario Draghi remains prime minister, Italy’s political establishment has achieved what appears to be the best possible outcome. The... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly More space to scrap NIC hike than most think With the beleaguered Prime Minister looking to win back support from his Tory MPs, one option reportedly being considered is postponing or scrapping the planned national insurance tax hike. On our... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
