Latin America Economics Update Goodbye Guzmán, hello crisis The news that Argentine economy minister, Martín Guzmán, resigned over the weekend points to growing influence of the Kirchner faction of the government. From an economic perspective, this is likely... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro reaction, Lula’s plans, hawkish central banks Gustavo Petro’s win in Colombia’s presidential election has caused tremors in the country’s financial markets. While the appointment of a centrist finance minister could help to settle investors’... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Governments collapse, Russia set to default Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: First thoughts on Petro’s victory Left-wing Gustavo Petro’s win in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election is likely to spook investors and trigger a sell-off in the country’s financial markets. We suspect that Petro will... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Loss of majority curtails Macron’s second term plans French President Emmanuel Macron faces five difficult years after losing his absolute majority in parliament. Proposed reforms, including to pensions and benefits, will be diluted if they happen at... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation will keep ECB hawks in charge this year Euro-zone inflation is likely to remain higher than the ECB expects over the rest of this year. That will keep the balance of opinion on the Bank’s Governing Council tilted firmly in favour of the... 10th June 2022 · 7 mins read
