Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot? The swearing in of a new congress next month gives Mexico’s outgoing president, Amlo, a one month window to re-start plans to pass controversial planned constitutional amendments. At the very least... 22nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way... 21st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the... 19th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Harris unveils populist economic plan Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Ousting of Thai PM could spell bad news for the economy Thailand's Constitutional Court today dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a move that could trigger further political instability and bodes poorly for the country’s economy. 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
