US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update President Le Pen: seismic shift or five-year blip? A win for Marine Le Pen would need to be followed by a strong showing for her party in June’s legislative elections if she is to implement most of her programme. A government of national unity or... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka? Recent tumultuous events in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should eventually pave the way for IMF deals in both countries, which over time may lead to the return of economic stability. However, this is by no... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka suspends debt payments, pushes for IMF deal Sri Lanka’s decision today to suspend payments to bond holders is designed to pave the way for a deal with the IMF and an orderly rescheduling of its debts. The diverse array of creditors to Sri Lanka... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: major challenges await new PM The main challenge facing Shehbaz Sharif, who today replaced Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan, is stabilising the economy. The key to achieving this is a deal with the IMF. The price for any... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French presidential race still looks very close A solid result for incumbent Emmanuel Macron in yesterday’s first round of the French presidential election has helped to allay fears of a Le Pen presidency. But the latest polls still point to a very... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Le Pen & sanction risk put euro under more pressure The US dollar has risen across the board this week as the Fed’s hawkish message on “quantitative tightening”, renewed sanction risks in Europe, and the polling shift in favour of far-right candidate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy sanctions ratchet up, Russia close to default? This week’s announcement that the EU will ban the import of Russian coal from mid-August will not have a major impact on Russian export revenues, but it marks a clear shift in the EU’s aim to target... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Growing risk of Le Pen upset to Macron re-election bid This month’s French presidential election no longer looks like the shoo-in for incumbent Emmanuel Macron that it did only a few weeks ago. Right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen’s chances have risen... 8th April 2022 · 20 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
