Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Paying the price of high inflation We have revised our forecast for world growth this year to further below the consensus to reflect the growing ill effects of high inflation. While inflation should ease as the year goes on, the drag... 27th April 2022 · 47 mins read
Capital Daily China’s restrictions add extra turbulence for global markets More inflation from supply chain pressures owing to lockdowns in China could make equity and bond markets more turbulent. 26th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron 2.0: pension reform and cost of living in focus The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron gives him five more years to improve France’s economic potential and its public finances, with pension reform and the green transition central to... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone bond markets and the French election Even if incumbent President Macron wins France’s upcoming presidential election, we expect that the yields of French government bonds will rise further, and that the yield spreads of euro-zone... 21st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
