Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The economic consequences of Mr Johnson’s potential demise With UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence in his leadership of the Conservative Party later today, it is worth considering what the implications for UK financial markets of... 6th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism in Colombia and Brazil? Populist Rodolfo Hernández is now the favourite to become Colombia’s next president and this has buoyed local financial markets this week, but we think that the scope for a further rally is limited... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Colombia: no more business as usual The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major... 30th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Pakistan edges closer to IMF deal Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being... 30th May 2022 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petrobras debacle, Banxico minutes, Colombia votes The news this week that Brazil’s President Bolsonaro sacked the CEO of oil giant Petrobras, José Mauro Coelho, provides a worrying sign about the direction of policymaking in the run-up to October’s... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore inflation worries, BBM taking the right steps Rising inflation and a strong economy have fuelled talk that monetary policy in Singapore will need to be tightened further. But we think the backdrop will have changed by the time the Monetary... 27th May 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax shakeup, Shanghai parts shortages The government aims to lift the standard corporate tax rate while providing more generous tax breaks for capital spending. We doubt this will have a noticeable impact on business investment, not least... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
