Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet

In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes

The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Risks to the global economy: your questions answered

We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update...

5th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany State Elections

The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Harris plans major tax hikes

After unveiling plans to boost spending and cut taxes for the middle-class in a big speech a couple of weeks ago, Vice President Kamala Harris has quietly acknowledged since then that she intends to...

30th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs?

While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

New bosses for Pemex and the BCB

The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Normal gold service resumes; OPEC+’s conundrum

While the stonking rally in gold prices earlier this year was at odds with traditional market drivers, the latest leg up in gold prices – which saw the nominal price reach yet another fresh record...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read