Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth has peaked but war adds to uncertainty GDP growth in Russia came in stronger than most expected last year at 4.1%, but this was accompanied by significant overheating and policymakers lost control of inflation. We think the period of rapid... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s election: crunch time for the public finances Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is set to be a tight race, with a second round run-off in April likely to be needed to separate the two leading candidates. Among the next government’s... 6th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rolling tariff threat a downside risk to Canadian GDP Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
