Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for double digit inflation and recession There has been some good news this week – including July’s labour market data and the continued rise in gas stocks – but the big picture is still very bleak, not least because even after the steep... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update What the new PM could, should and should not do The new Prime Minster should acknowledge the size of the economic crisis, announce measures to shelter households and businesses from it, leave the Bank of England’s mandate largely unchanged, create... 2nd September 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE policy moves, OPEC+ meeting, Tunisia default risks The Central Bank of Egypt appears to be pressing ahead with its shift toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, which should also increase the likelihood of Egypt securing an IMF deal. Elsewhere... 1st September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile at a turning point Chile’s new constitution, which will be put to the people in a referendum this coming Sunday, would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. Even if the constitution is... 1st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political rollercoasters across the region Relatively peaceful election proceedings in Kenya and Angola this month have provided a lift to investor sentiment. But with the respective losing presidential candidates challenging official results... 31st August 2022 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update How will the midterms affect the economic outlook? The Republican party is on track to regain control of at least the House in the upcoming midterms, though the recent narrowing in the polls means that is no longer the slam dunk it once appeared... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s hurdles to an IMF deal, Saudi threatens oil cut Egypt appears to be edging closer toward reaching a new IMF deal with officials having made positive steps in recent months to address the exchange rate, fiscal policy, and structural reforms, all of... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: elections won’t prevent return to slow growth Angola’s elections on Wednesday may be more competitive than ever before, but the ruling party’s decades-long hold on power is unlikely to come to an end. Assuming President Lourenço secures another... 23rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections, Bank of Ghana in panic mode Deputy President William Ruto was this week declared winner in Kenya’s presidential election, but the result is being challenged and the threat of violence lingers. Even if that is avoided, Mr. Ruto... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Amer’s resignation raises scrutiny of pound policy The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer points to a growing tension within policymaking circles on the best way to address the country’s external imbalances. We think the... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
