Climate Economics Update Deforestation a key issue in Brazil’s election Environmental policy is one channel through which Brazil’s presidential election has global implications. The country is the single largest source of deforestation in the world and, with deforestation... 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor Statement (17th Oct.) The Chancellor didn’t just do a further U-turn on the Truss/Kwarteng policies in his statement today, he essentially wiped them out in an attempt to reassure the financial markets that the government... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s IMF deal: still more work to do The news that Tunisia has reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF over a $1.9bn financing package provides hope that the economy will avoid a messy balance of payments crisis. But there are still... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Xi wants a more self-sufficient and socialist China General Secretary Xi’s Report to the Party Congress signalled a further shift away from market-based reforms in favour of a state-led campaign to increase self-sufficiency and economic security... 17th October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal crisis to market crisis to political crisis The sacking of the Chancellor and the U-turn on corporation tax might not be enough for the government to regain the full confidence of the financial markets. For that to happen, more may need to be... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor sacked, further mini-budget U-turns (14th Oct.) 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly The reshuffle of Xi’s economic team The Party Congress begins on Sunday. There’s little doubt that it will mark the start of a third term in power for Xi Jinping. What’s less clear is whether retirement norms will still apply to other... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt to suffer short-term economic pain Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter external financing conditions have exacerbated strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and we think the pound needs to fall a lot further. This will add... 13th October 2022 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update Zero-COVID is here to stay There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future and it probably won’t happen before the end of 2023. If the leadership did want to transition to living with the virus... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus The 20th Party Congress The Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership but, with General Secretary Xi’s continued dominance in little doubt, it won’t result in any substantial change in policy... 11th October 2022 · 31 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The dust settles in Brazil, Petro hits at BanRep The stronger-than-expected performance of Jair Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies in Brazil’s election last Sunday has buoyed the country’s financial markets by reducing the risk of a dramatic shift... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision fallout, Egypt’s IMF deal The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk... 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight The fracturing of the global economy The shocks caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions will have a lasting impact on the world economy, reversing decades of global integration in some areas while strengthening... 6th October 2022 · 17 mins read
