Emerging Europe Economics Weekly All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is... 4th November 2022 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dovish turn is still coming, eventually This week’s FOMC meeting may have dashed hopes that the Fed will follow the recent dovish tilts of some other central banks. But we still think Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the reopening rumours Rumours about an imminent move away from zero-COVID have lifted Chinese markets this week but there is no concrete evidence yet of a shift. And even if officials are now drawing up an exit strategy... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery entering a more challenging phase Israel’s economy has been one of the fastest growing globally since the pandemic but there are a number of headwinds that will weigh on activity over the coming quarters. We expect a period of below... 2nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response New Prime Minister will have to work hard to restore credibility 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch after Lula’s victory The narrow victory for Lula in the second-round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday has, so far, thankfully not been contested by Bolsonaro. But there’s still likely to be a negative reaction... 31st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tightening election race The second-round of Brazil’s presidential election race on Sunday is looking much closer than had seemed likely a few weeks ago. Lula still appears to be the favourite. But the rising likelihood of a... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event Egypt Drop-In: Will Cairo's reform announcements seal an IMF deal? 1666864800 The Egyptian government announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a shift to a more flexible exchange rate regime and accompanying interest rate hikes -- but will it be enough?
