Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes

The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed...

24th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge

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Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Event

Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong)

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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government

We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast

Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Will Japan have its first female prime minister?

Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, though the race remains wide open. While she has opposed any policy tightening by the Bank of Japan...

20th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet

In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read