Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Poland’s election – A fork in the road 1697119200 Schisms with the EU. Wavering support for Ukraine. Sky-high inflation. The stakes in Poland’s general election on Sunday 15th October couldn’t be higher.
US Economics Weekly Revisions leave economic landscape unchanged The comprehensive revisions to the GDP data did not make a significant change to the macroeconomic story, with the real economy still 6.1% larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the discrepancy... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update The impact of yet another government shutdown The direct hit to the economy from even an extended government shutdown beginning next week would be modest. But it could also result in delays to key data releases, including the September employment... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election, Dubai debts, CE Spotlight The confirmation that Egypt’s presidential election has been moved forward to December is likely to keep the policy shift toward economic orthodoxy on pause for the time being. Our best guess now is... 28th September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is... 21st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update How to think about Taiwan’s election flashpoint The weeks leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election in January could be marked by another rise in tensions with China. The most likely outcome of the vote is another DPP presidency. While Lai Ching... 20th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s presidential race begins Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum was unveiled as the ruling Morena party’s presidential candidate this week and with her facing off against the main opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez in... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
