Europe Economics Update German election won’t prompt early fiscal tightening The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pension deficits another constraint on investment recovery Despite the recent rise in share prices, firms’ pension funds remain in a sorry state. This is just one of the reasons why domestic demand is unlikely to help to drive the economic recovery. 21st September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scrappage scheme boosts car sales – but wider effect unlikely August’s UK car registration figures showed that the scrappage scheme introduced in May is giving a sizeable boost to new car sales. But it is likely to give only a minimal boost to the overall... 4th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can investment drive the recovery? With a fiscal consolidation looming, households facing pressure to raise their saving rates and the lower pound giving limited support to exports, it is hard to see what might turn the recent signs of... 13th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Election result looks good for growth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How worrying is the fall in Japanese machinery orders? Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan's Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How can Venezuela cope with the fall in oil revenues? The decision of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez to nationalise more than 60 firms last month, including a Spanish bank, is a clear response to the effect that the collapse of oil prices has had on... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond issuance won't plug the lending gap The recent pick-up in corporate bond issuance suggests that, even though banks remain reluctant to lend, companies are managing to access funds from elsewhere. However, it looks unlikely that higher... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How reliable is Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey? The jump in the Economy Watchers Survey of business conditions in April provides some of the best evidence yet that the Japanese economy is past the worst. However, while the recent rebound is... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
