UK Economics Update Just how damaging would a hung parliament be? There are worries that a hung parliament could lead to higher interest rates and a lower credit rating – a nasty scenario for sterling assets. But with monetary policy set to remain extremely loose... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Just how damaging would a hung parliament be? There are worries that a hung parliament could lead to higher interest rates and a lower credit rating – a nasty scenario for sterling assets. But with monetary policy set to remain extremely loose... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales figures suggested that total consumer spending fell in Q4, adding to signs that the overall recovery lost pace. What’s more, January’s final PMI survey pointed to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a “double-dip” sink Mr Brown? Q4’s disappointing GDP figures have raised fresh questions over the possibility of a “double-dip” in the economy and the implications for the timing and outcome of the forthcoming general election. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a “double-dip” sink Mr Brown? Q4’s disappointing GDP figures have raised fresh questions over the possibility of a “double-dip” in the economy and the implications for the timing and outcome of the forthcoming general election. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) & French Consumer Spending (Dec.) January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian elections to spotlight fiscal frailties The very worst fears of a major fiscal blow-out in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections are probably overblown. But given Hungary’s comparatively high level of debt and history of fiscal... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Democrats taking a much tougher line on bank reform 22nd January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary policy after the election While analysis of the influence of the general election on economic policy has focused on the size and timing of the fiscal tightening, the conduct of monetary policy could also be affected. But... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When should Mr Brown go to the polls? Uncertainties over the likely path of the economic recovery suggest that the timing of the general election might have an important influence on its outcome. Should Mr Brown hang on to the last in the... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When should Mr Brown go to the polls? Uncertainties over the likely path of the economic recovery suggest that the timing of the general election might have an important influence on its outcome. Should Mr Brown hang on to the last in the... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
