Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia’s government left in minority The collapse of Latvia’s ruling coalition earlier today underlines the difficulty of carrying out the aggressive fiscal cuts that are needed to keep the country’s IMF programme on track. 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2010 China’s businesses and banks remain confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and reluctant to spend. 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Politics will stay in the way of Korea rate hikes The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. BoK Governor Lee’s term ends this month and his replacement is likely to be sympathetic to the government view that monetary... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Bank Lending (Feb.) The continued improvement in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in February is further evidence of a strong and increasingly broad-based recovery. We would pay less attention... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze should eventually support the pound Fears that the general election will result in a hung parliament may continue to weigh on the pound in the coming weeks. But the prospect of a major fiscal squeeze under any form of government should... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI (Feb.) February’s final PMI survey suggests that the euro-zone economy is still expanding only slowly. And with retail sales falling again in January, the much-needed consumer recovery has yet to materialise... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Bus. Inv. (Q4) & CBI Distributive Trades (Feb.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) & Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The annual growth of Japan’s exports predictably soared in January due to favourable base effects. More revealingly, exports continued their gradual recovery in month-onmonth terms. Today’s upbeat... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & French Consumer Spending (Jan.) The latest data add to the recent run of bad news. With German Ifo business sentiment falling in February and French consumer spending dropping in January, there is little hope that the euro-zone... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The euro-zone composite PMI was unchanged in February, adding to evidence that the economy probably expanded at a fairly lacklustre pace at the start of this year. 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Yanukovich triumphs but Ukrainian markets set for a rough ride Exit polls suggest that Viktor Yanukovich has defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the race to become Ukraine’s next President. But his margin of victory in yesterday’s run-off was slim and the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
