Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks increase again The shocking weekend events in Bangkok could make it more difficult to reach a compromise on the date of new elections, or may bring new urgency to the negotiations. We suspect that new elections will... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fidesz romps to victory, but will inherit fiscal frailties The markets have welcomed Fidesz’s landslide victory in yesterday’s election in Hungary. But with a distinct lack of policy detail from the party so far, we remain only cautiously optimistic that its... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should stay contained Yesterday’s declaration of a state of emergency in Thailand could mark the start of a dangerous escalation in the confrontation between street protestors and the government. But while the stand-off... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response EWS (Mar.) & Machinery Orders (Feb.) The sharp improvement in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in March is further evidence of an increasingly broad-based recovery. This trumps the bad news of a fall in... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Upbeat economic news may not do the job for Mr Brown The news on the UK economy in the approach to the general election now looks likely to be reasonably upbeat. But the key question is whether voters will translate that better news into greater... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Upbeat economic news may not do the job for Mr Brown The news on the UK economy in the approach to the general election now looks likely to be reasonably upbeat. But the key question is whether voters will translate that better news into greater... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final GDP (Q4), Final PMIs (Mar.) & PPI (Feb.) The downward revision to Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures is a reminder of the economy’s fragility. Thankfully, March’s final PMI survey brought further evidence that the recovery resumed in Q1. But the... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK election won’t transform the economic outlook The result of the UK general election could have short-term effects on sterling asset markets, but it won’t transform the economic outlook. Whatever the outcome, the next five years will be... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economic data give Government pre-election boost With just over a month to the expected date of the general election, the recent economic data - while not spectacular - have probably come as a bit of a relief for the Government. Last week’s further... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Survey (Mar) The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey revealed little that was not already clear from the improvements in the monthly data. The relative pessimism of small firms is a concern, but the Shoko... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Spring elections to spotlight fiscal frailties Forthcoming elections in Hungary and the Czech Republic are likely to spotlight fiscal frailties in both countries. As ever, the risks remain greatest in Hungary. But the likelihood of a weak... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Conservatives jump on the waste wagon The Conservatives’ pledge to use efficiency savings to avoid the Government’s planned increases in national insurance in 2011 leaves both parties’ fiscal plans highly dependent on uncertain reductions... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German CPI (Mar.) March’s EC business and consumer survey provides some encouragement that, for now, fiscal worries in the region are not weighing too heavily on overall sentiment towards the economy. But the surveys... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitable This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s increases in the euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys bring some encouragement that the economic recovery in the region has not ground completely to a halt, but the outlook remains fragile. 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks contained, but for how long? The government will probably continue to hold the upper hand in Thailand’s street protests and a compromise is increasingly likely which will involve early elections. But a new vote may not end the... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
